An epidemiological model for prediction of endometrial cancer risk in Europe
2016
academicJournal
Zugriff:
Endometrial cancer (EC) is the fourth most frequent cancer in women in Europe, and as its incidence is increasing, prevention strategies gain further pertinence. Risk prediction models can be a useful tool for identifying women likely to benefit from targeted prevention measures. On the basis of data from 201,811 women (mostly aged 30-65 years) including 855 incident EC cases from eight countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, a model to predict EC was developed. A step-wise model selection process was used to select confirmed predictive epidemiologic risk factors. Piece-wise constant hazard rates in 5-year age-intervals were estimated in a cause-specific competing risks model, five-fold-cross-validation was applied for internal validation. Risk factors included in the risk prediction model were body-mass index (BMI), menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, oral contraceptive use, overall and by different BMI categories and overall duration of use, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy, duration of menopausal hormone therapy and smoking status (specific for pre, peri- and post-menopausal women). These variables improved the discriminating capacity to predict risk over 5 years from 71 % for a model based on age alone to 77 % (overall C statistic), and the model was well-calibrated (ratio of expected to observed cases = 0.99). Our model could be used for the identification of women at increased risk of EC in Western Europe. To achieve an EC-risk model with general validity, a large-scale cohort-consortium approach would be needed to assess and adjust for population variation.
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An epidemiological model for prediction of endometrial cancer risk in Europe
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Huesing, Anika ; Dossus, Laure ; Ferrari, Pietro ; Tjonneland ; Anne ; Hansen, Louise ; Fagherazzi, Guy ; Baglietto, Laura and ; Schock, Helena ; Chang-Claude, Jenny ; Boeing, Heiner ; Steffen ; Annika ; Trichopoulou, Antonia ; Bamia, Christina ; Katsoulis ; Michalis ; Krogh, Vittorio ; Palli, Domenico ; Panico, Salvatore ; and Onland-Moret, N. ; Charlotte ; Peeters, Petra H. ; and ; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. ; Bas ; Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Gram, Inger T. ; and Ardanaz, Eva ; Obon-Santacana, Mireia ; Navarro, Carmen and ; Sanchez-Cantalejo, Emilio ; Etxezarreta, Nerea ; Allen, Naomi E. ; Khaw, Kay Tee ; Wareham, Nick ; Rinaldi, Sabina ; Romieu, Isabelle ; and Merritt, Melissa A. ; Gunter, Marc ; Riboli, Elio ; Kaaks ; Rudolf |
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Veröffentlichung: | 2016 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
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