Predictors of return to work among women with long-term neck/shoulder and/or back pain : a 1-year prospective study

Background Sick leave due to musculoskeletal pain, particularly in the neck/shoulders and back, is one of the major public health problems in Western countries such as Sweden. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of return to work (RTW) among women on sick leave due to long-term neck/shoulder and/or back pain. Methods This was a prospective cohort study with a 1-year follow-up. The study participants were recruited from a local Swedish Social Insurance Agency register and had all been on sick leave for ≥ 1 month due to long-term (≥ 3 months) neck/shoulder and/or back pain. Data on predictors and outcome were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. A total of 208 women aged 23–64 years were included at baseline, and 141 responded at the 1-year follow-up. Cluster analyses were performed to identify one predictor from each cluster for use in the regression model. Results At the 1-year follow-up, 94 of the 141 women had RTW and 47 had not. Women who engaged in more coping through increasing behavioral activities (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03–1.25) and those who more strongly believed they would return to the same work within 6 months (OR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.10–1.37) had an increased probability of RTW. Receiving more social support outside work (OR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.28–0.92) decreased the odds of RTW at the 1-year follow-up. Conclusions Behavioral activities, beliefs about returning to the same work, and social support outside work were predictors of RTW at the 1-year follow-up. Healthcare professionals should consider these predictors in their efforts to prevent prolonged sick leave and to promote RTW in this population. Keywords: Follow-up study, Musculoskeletal pain, Prognostic factors, Return to work, and Sickness absence.