The mystery of the missing-tenants: The "negative" case of fixed-term leasing and agricultural investment in fifteenth-century Tuscany.

The anomalous economic development of Tuscany, Italy is a puzzle for theories of transitions from feudalism to capitalism. Many of the preconditions for a rapid transition to full-scale, industrial capitalism existed there in the late Middle Ages, including relatively efficient agricultural production, a large, well-developed, urban economy and commercial manufacturing sector in Florence, and the absence of a powerful feudal nobility and feudal obligations, but did not produce a rapid transition to capitalism. Tuscan economic development is, therefore, an example of a negative case, where the theoretically expected outcome did not occur. This article employs negative case methodology to explain the Tuscan paradox and to develop the content of sociological theory. Negative case methodology contributes to theories of investment, because it shows how the paradoxical Tuscan historical trajectory can be explained by combining aspects of the neo-Marxist and neo-classical arguments. The evidence presented shows that fixed-term middle tenants were relatively common in fifteenth-century Tuscany. The evidence also shows that Tuscany had all of the neo-Marxist preconditions necessary for the rise of agrarian capitalism. Thus, the examination of Tuscan landlords and middle-tenants illustrates the influence of social class on patterns of investment.