Using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) to predict future trends in the distribution of high altitude endemic insects in response to climate change.
In: Bulletin of Insectology, Jg. 70 (2017-12-01), Heft 2, S. 189-200
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Zugriff:
This study analyzes the possible usefulness of "species distribution models" (SDMs) using "Maximum Entropy Modeling" (Max- Ent) software to investigate the effects of climate change, under both current and projected conditions, on the distribution of 10 endemic Italian insect species (Coleoptera and Orthoptera) associated with high altitude areas in the Central Apennines. Twentytwo environmental variables are used as potential predictors of species habitat suitability. Climatic conditions exert strong control over the geographic distribution of species and MaxEnt highlights that the most influential factors mainly are fluctuation in temperature and variation in weather events typically associated with high altitude environments. The extent of suitable areas is calculated by the "suitability status change index" (SSCI) and differences in habitat suitability between current and future conditions are compared. Although the most optimistic future scenario (RCP2.6) is used, the results obtained show a serious decline in suitable habitat for vulnerable and sensitive species: in particular, the suitable habitats of Italohippus monticola, Italopodisma fiscellana, and Luperus fiorii will be heavily reduced, whereas a total loss (100%) of suitable habitat will be experienced by Trechus hummleri. In addition, through the centroid analysis, some species (Italohippus monticola, Italopodisma costai, Otiorhynchus sirentensis, and Trechus cerrutii) show a slight "virtual" gain and a "southeastern shift" of their suitable habitat. Species distribution models can be extremely helpful to identify and analyze the cause of the fragmentation and contraction distribution. From the conservation point of view, the endemic taxa generally represent very vulnerable elements, so correct and farsighted actions are indispensable for the protection of particularly sensitive habitats harbouring them, such as Central Apennines that represent one of the most important hotspot of biodiversity for high altitude species, especially for insects, in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) to predict future trends in the distribution of high altitude endemic insects in response to climate change.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | URBANI, Fabrizia ; D'ALESSANDRO, Paola ; BIONDI, Maurizio |
Zeitschrift: | Bulletin of Insectology, Jg. 70 (2017-12-01), Heft 2, S. 189-200 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2017 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 1721-8861 (print) |
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